Models for Temporal Volcanic Hazard

Caldera rim collapse: A hidden volcanic hazard

Following the emblematic fl ank collapse of Mount St Helens in 1981, numerous models of flank sliding have been proposed. These models have allowed to largely improve the understanding of mechanisms involved in such landslides, which represent a tremendous risk for populations living around volcanoes. In this article, a new mode of landslide formation, related to buried calderas, is described. ...

Tracking volcanic sulfur dioxide clouds for aviation hazard mitigation

Satellite measurements of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions can provide critical information for aviation hazard mitigation, particularly when ash detection techniques fail. Recent developments in space-based SO2 monitoring are discussed, focusing on daily, global ultraviolet (UV) measurements by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite. OMI’s high sensitivity to SO2...

A DDDAS Framework for Volcanic Ash Propagation and Hazard Analysis

In this paper we will present early work on using a DDDAS based approach to the construction of probabilistic estimates of volcanic ash transport and dispersal. Our primary modeling tools will be a combination of a plume eruption model BENT and the ash transport model PUFF. Data from satellite imagery, observation of vent parameters and windfields will drive our simulations. We will use uncerta...

Rational volcanic hazard forecasts and the use of volcanic alert levels

Volcanologists make hazard forecasts in order to contribute to volcanic risk assessments and decision-making, in areas where volcanic phenomena have the potential to impact societal assets. Present-day forecasts related to the potential occurrence of an eruption mostly take the form of alert levels, that are established by volcano scientists with the aim of communicating the state of a volcano ...

Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis